\u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u30bb\u30df\u30ca\u30fc\u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u30bb\u30df\u30ca\u30fc<\/p>\n
\u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u30bb\u30df\u30ca\u30fc\u306e\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u3067\u3059\uff0e
\n\u65e5\u6642\u3068\u5834\u6240\u304c\u901a\u5e38\u3068\u5927\u304d\u304f\u7570\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u306e\u3067\u3054\u6ce8\u610f\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff0e<\/p>\n
==================================================<\/p>\n
\u6d41\u3000\u4f53\u3000\u529b\u3000\u5b66\u3000\u30bb\u3000\u30df\u3000\u30ca\u30fc\u3000 2013
\n\u3000 \u5171\u50ac\uff1a \u6c17\u8c61\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u5ba4\u30b3\u30ed\u30ad\u30a6\u30e0<\/p>\n
\u65e5\u6642\uff1a10\u6708 9\u65e5\uff08\u6c34\uff09 10:00 \u304b\u3089 12:00<\/p>\n
\u5834\u6240\uff1a \u4eac\u90fd\u5927\u5b66\u5927\u5b66\u9662 \u7406\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u79d1 1\u53f7\u9928 563\u53f7\u5ba4
\n (\u5730\u7403\u60d1\u661f\u79d1\u5b66\u5c02\u653b\u5171\u901a\u5927\u4f1a\u8b70\u5ba4)<\/p>\n
\u8b1b\u5e2b\uff1a Prof. Dale Durran
\n (Prof. of Atmospheric Sciences,
\n Dept. of Applied Mathematics,
\n University of Washington)<\/p>\n
\u8b1b\u6f14\u984c\u76ee\uff1a Atmospheric Predictability: Why Butterflies Don’t Matter<\/p>\n
\u8b1b\u6f14\u8981\u65e8\uff1a
\nThe seminal paper of Lorenz (1969) established that a fluid system has
\nlimited predictability if the spectral distribution of its energy decays
\nsufficiently slowly as the scale of motion decreases (i.e., if the
\nkinetic energy per unit wavenumber has a -5\/3 spectrum). According to
\nLorenz, predictability is limited by the upscale cascade of errors
\nbeginning at the smallest scales that are not subject to viscous
\ndissipation. Thus, the flapping of a butterfly’s wings might be
\nsupposed to change the weather on a relatively short time scale.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, numerical weather prediction has been reasonably
\nsuccessful without accounting for the behavior of butterflies. We will
\nreview the various modifications to the notion of atmospheric
\npredictability that have been proposed since Lorenz’s paper and present
\nnew results from recent ensemble simulations of strong winter storms.
\nWe will show that after a few modifications, Lorenz’s model is able to
\ndo a surprisingly good job of describing the loss of predictability in
\nthe ensemble forecasts. In the process, we will see why butterflies
\nare of no practical importance.<\/p>\n
+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–+–<\/p>\n
\u4e16\u8a71\u4eba\uff1a\u5c71\u7530 \u9053\u592b(\u4eac\u5927\u6570\u7406\u7814)\uff0c \u85e4 \u5b9a\u7fa9(\u4eac\u5927)\uff0c\u677e\u672c \u525b(\u4eac\u5927\u7406)
\n\u30a2\u30c9\u30d0\u30a4\u30b6\u30fc\uff1a\u8239\u8d8a \u6e80\u660e\uff08\u4eac\u5927\u60c5\u5831\u5b66\uff09\u3001\u6c34\u5cf6 \u4e8c\u90ce(\u540c\u5fd7\u793e\u5927\u5de5)\u3001
\n \u4f59\u7530 \u6210\u7537\uff08\u4eac\u5927\u7406\uff09
\n\u9023\u7d61\u5148\uff1a\u5c71\u7530\u9053\u592b yamada__at__kurims.kyoto-u.ac.jp
\n=========================================================<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u30bb\u30df\u30ca\u30fc\u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u30bb\u30df\u30ca\u30fc \u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u30bb\u30df\u30ca\u30fc\u306e\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u3067\u3059\uff0e \u65e5\u6642\u3068\u5834\u6240\u304c\u901a\u5e38\u3068\u5927\u304d\u304f\u7570\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u306e\u3067\u3054\u6ce8\u610f\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\uff0e ================================================ […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-16","category-19"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/kyoryu.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/293","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/kyoryu.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/kyoryu.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kyoryu.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kyoryu.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=293"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/kyoryu.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/293\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/kyoryu.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=293"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kyoryu.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=293"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/kyoryu.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=293"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}